fbpx

Electoral Map and Trump

This topic contains 12 replies, has 0 voices, and was last updated by  coffeebreak 2 years, 6 months ago.

  • Author
    Posts
  • #177283

    EGL Admin
    Member
    • Topics - 3,082
    • Replies - 21,888
    • Total Posts - 24,970

    This sums up what I have been saying. His chances in November are not very good. He doesn’t do well head to head with Clinton. She will kill him in the debates because he’s going to go negative and look like an ass. His numbers with women are horrible. The question I have been asking is, what states is he going to win that Romney lost in 2012 that will get him over the hump. I see another 2012 result or worse coming up. This is why the RNC doesn’t want him as the nominee. We’ve gone from concerns that the GOP is too far right and they can’t possibly win, to someone who is more in the middle and he is doing even worse. Dislike for Clinton aside, will he really be a better president? I’m not sure and I think a lot of republicans and conservatives feel the same way. Very few people I talk to are happy with Trump being the nominee. The two biggest negatives are he is not Conservative and he’s an ass. The second part is why he is going to have trouble winning the middle. His comments on abortion have made him look worse than Ted Cruz. At least Cruz has principles. Agree or disagree with what they are, you know where he stands. Trump is all over the place on abortion and I don’t know that there is a more anti-woman candidate in our recent history. This is where his attacks on Megyn Kelly hurt him. He comes off like a sexist pig. I hope something happens at the convention and he is not the nominee. In which case, he may go third party, which guarantees a Clinton victory. Better Clinton than Sanders in my opinion, so I hope she beats him anyway. I know it’s not impossible and people point to Reagan in 1980 (that’s not really the same though), but his numbers of people who dislike him are pretty high and that is because he is an *******. Why any blue collar or middle class person would follow him is amazing because Trump doesn’t care about the little people. He way out of touch with middle class America

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/03/us/politics/donald-trump-general-election.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
    Donald J. Trump’s presidential candidacy has stunned the Republican Party. But if he survives a late revolt by his rivals and other leaders to become the party’s standard-bearer in the general election, the electoral map now coming into view is positively forbidding.

    In recent head-to-head polls with one Democrat whom Mr. Trump may face in the fall, Hillary Clinton, he trails in every key state, including Florida and Ohio, despite her soaring unpopularity ratings with swing voters.

    In Democratic-leaning states across the Rust Belt, which Mr. Trump has vowed to return to the Republican column for the first time in nearly 30 years, his deficit is even worse: Mrs. Clinton leads him by double digits in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    Mr. Trump is so negatively viewed, polls suggest, that he could turn otherwise safe Republican states, usually political afterthoughts because of their strong conservative tilt, into tight contests. In Utah, his deep unpopularity with Mormon voters suggests that a state that has gone Republican every election for a half-century could wind up in play. Republicans there pointed to a much-discussed Deseret News poll last month, showing Mrs. Clinton with a narrow lead over Mr. Trump, to argue that the state would be difficult for him.

    Horse-race polls this early are poor predictors of election results, and candidates have turned around public opinion before. And the country’s politics have become so sharply polarized that no major-party contender is likely to come near the 49-state defeats suffered by Democrats in 1972 and 1984.

    But without an extraordinary reversal — or the total collapse of whoever becomes his general-election opponent — Mr. Trump could be hard-pressed to win more than 200 of the 270 electoral votes required to win.

    Mr. Trump has become unacceptable, perhaps irreversibly so, to broad swaths of Americans, including large majorities of women, nonwhites, Hispanics, voters under 30 and those with college degrees — the voters who powered President Obama’s two victories and represent the country’s demographic future. All view him unfavorably by a 2-to-1 margin, according to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll.

    In some states, Mr. Trump has surprised establishment-aligned Republicans with his breadth of support beyond the less-educated men who form his base. Even so, his support in the nominating process, in which some 30 million people may ultimately vote, would be swamped in a general election, when turnout is likely to be four times that.

    “We’re talking about somebody who has the passionate devotion of a minority and alternately scares, appalls, angers — or all of the above — a majority of the country,” said Henry Olsen, a conservative analyst. “This isn’t anything but a historic election defeat just waiting to happen.”

    What could ensure a humiliating loss for Mr. Trump in November are his troubles with constituencies that have favored Republicans in recent elections. Among independents, a group that Mitt Romney carried even as he lost to President Obama in 2012, Mr. Trump would begin the fall campaign at a considerable disadvantage: 19 percent have a favorable opinion of him, but 57 percent view him unfavorably, the Times/CBS survey found. Given his loathed standing among Democrats and the possibility that many in his own party would spurn him, Mr. Trump would need to invert his numbers among independents to even be competitive in November.

    With white women, a bloc Mr. Romney easily won even in defeat, Mr. Trump is nearly as unpopular: 23 percent view him favorably, while 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. And that was before Mr. Trump attacked Senator Ted Cruz’s wife, ridiculed a female reporter against whom Mr. Trump’s campaign manager was charged with committing battery, and suggested that women who have abortions should face criminal punishment before reversing himself.

    Mr. Trump’s penchant to offend and his household-name celebrity are a potentially lethal combination, as most voters have both firm and deeply negative opinions of him. His incendiary comments about minorities and the disabled, and proposals to bar Muslims from entering the United States or to force Mexico to pay for a wall on the southern border, have resounded so widely that half of all voters said they would be scared if he were elected president, according to the Times/CBS poll.

    “There is no precedent for this,” said Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican pollster. “In the modern polling era, since around World War II, there hasn’t been a more unpopular potential presidential nominee than Donald Trump.”

    Stan Greenberg, the longtime Democratic pollster, released a survey Friday summing up Mr. Trump’s vulnerabilities under the headline, “Earthquake?” Mr. Trump trails Mrs. Clinton by 23 points among women in Mr. Greenberg’s poll, suggesting the possibility of a gender gap of historic proportions. (The Times survey last month had Mrs. Clinton leading by 20 points among women.) The largest gender gap in the last 36 years was Bob Dole’s 11-point loss among women against Bill Clinton in 1996.

    “His gains with men have been neutralized with women,” Mr. Greenberg said of Mr. Trump. “There’s no play here. The math just doesn’t work.”

    Nationally, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by about 10 percentage points in most head-to-head polls — the widest margin at this point in a presidential campaign in 16 years.

    If Mrs. Clinton somehow loses the Democratic race — unlikely given her delegate advantage — Mr. Trump could fare even worse in a general election against Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has higher margins than Mrs. Clinton in head-to-head polling against Mr. Trump in most swing states.

    Even among the working-class whites, who have been the foundation of his success in the Republican primaries, Mr. Trump would enter the general election with substantial difficulties. He is viewed unfavorably by a majority of whites without college degrees, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll early last month.

    It is possible that Mr. Trump could improve his standing with blue-collar voters who are crucial in Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls now show him faring worse than Mr. Romney did in 2012. But doing so would not be cost-free.

    “By leaning into white grievance politics, you give back whatever gains you made as you move up the economic scale,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist who has written extensively on Mr. Trump’s vulnerabilities. “There just aren’t enough votes left in the places where Trump could be strong, like rural areas, to offset the vote-rich places where Trump repels.”

    Or, as Mr. Olsen put it, referring to Michigan: “If you bring in 30,000 blue-collar voters from Flint, but you lose 50,000 from suburban Detroit, you’ve not helped yourself very much.”

    This losing trade-off has been largely overlooked because of Mr. Trump’s success so far and the failure of more affluent Republican primary voters to unite behind any of his rivals.

    But the general-election universe is vastly larger and more diverse than the Republican primary electorate. There are likely to be around 30 million votes in this year’s Republican primary once all 56 states and territories finish voting in June. In the 2012 contest between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney, about 129 million voters cast ballots.

    “You’re talking about a significantly more conservative, partisan, older and whiter group of voters than the general electorate,” Mr. Newhouse said. “It’s like night and day.”

    Mr. Trump’s hopes rest largely on his energizing a coalition of the disaffected: millions of people who have not voted in recent elections but who have found in Mr. Trump someone giving voice to their anger. High primary turnouts have fed speculation that Mr. Trump could lure back the so-called missing white voters — populist-minded Americans thought to have skipped the 2012 presidential election, and who, depending on their numbers, offer a glimmer of hope for many conservatives in an era of unfavorable demographic shifts.

    But Mr. Trump cannot count on such a surge. The actual number of missing white voters is quite low in the closely contested states, where turnout remained high or even rose in 2012.

    Moreover, there is scant evidence that white voters who did stay home would be inclined to support Mr. Trump. In fact, they were far younger and much more likely to be registered Democrats than the white voters who did turn out, according to the census and data from L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.

  • #293248

    SteveB6509
    Participant
    • Topics - 36
    • Replies - 1,460
    • Total Posts - 1,496

    I like how he is shaking up the establishment and I think he would be fine as a President (mainly because a President mainly governs by the Advisors they choose and are limited by the Legislature). However, I have great trouble with who he is as a public person. You are starting to see how he is walking back a bit on some of his views.

    As much as a have some problems with Trump, I have greater problems with Cruz. He is super conservative and has shown he doesn’t play well with others. We are wrapping up a President that had trouble governing because he didn’t want to talk to the Republicans (among other reasons). I think Cruz could be the same.

    I would love to see an open convention and see Kasich come in as the nominee. He is the only one who has been Presidential in this race (with views that I generally agree with).

  • #293238

    EGL Admin
    Member
    • Topics - 3,082
    • Replies - 21,888
    • Total Posts - 24,970

    His comments the other day on abortion were all over the map. I just don’t think he understands the complexity of some of the issues and how the system works. I think he is in some ways worse than any politician because he changes his views from day to day depending on what he thinks people want to hear. He said something the other about the Supreme Court and having them investigate Clinton or something. He doesn’t understand. The more this goes on, the more I think he is just a complete fraud and the less respect I have for Trump voters. At this point they don’t care what he says or does. It’s interesting to see the comments from the pundits and websites like Breitbart now just totally buying into anything he says and being so anti GOP.

    Now Trump is complaining that Kasich should quit and supposedly he talked to the RNC and said “it’s not fair”. He wants them to stop Kasich. Of course they won’t and can’t. That shows his thoughts and mentality. He has dictator qualities and he acts like that is what he would be and that he can come in and change everything. The president doesn’t have that kind of power. I think that’s where he would be very dangerous and try to use executive powers.

  • #293239

    EGL Admin
    Member
    • Topics - 3,082
    • Replies - 21,888
    • Total Posts - 24,970

    I thought Cruz did well on the Kelly File yesterday. Agree or disagree with his opinions, at least stands by it. I disagree with part of his comments on abortion. He did say that states and the voters should decide not the SCOTUS. He did not say he would endorse Trump. He did say he doesn’t make it a practice to endorse people who attack his wife and family. My guess is that he would not publicly endorse Trump. I don’t blame him. I’m hoping for a contested convention and see what happens.

    If the election is Trump vs Clinton I will probably leave it blank. I’m not sure yet. At this point I think both are a disaster for different reasons. Trump might be more so because he has zero foreign policy experience.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/04/cruz-reaches-out-to-women-voters-answers-abortion-questions-on-fox-exclusive.html

  • #293249

    SteveB6509
    Participant
    • Topics - 36
    • Replies - 1,460
    • Total Posts - 1,496

    Watched a little CNN coverage this morning and they are clearly making two stories:

    (a) Asking those who support Cruz why they won’t support Kasich (after they admit it will be an Open Convention),
    (b) Pushing the Bernie Sanders story hard (his strength, especially over the past 2 weeks). Tonight is sounding like it will be a large victory for Bernie (10+ points?).

  • #293240

    EGL Admin
    Member
    • Topics - 3,082
    • Replies - 21,888
    • Total Posts - 24,970

    Cruz won Wisconsin last night. He seems to be gaining momentum. Trump will do will in New York and the east states.

  • #293242

    adiffer
    Participant
    • Topics - 179
    • Replies - 9,504
    • Total Posts - 9,683

    The one guy I know in Wisconsin said he might hold his nose and vote for Cruz as an attempt to stop Trump. He self-describes as a conservative, but not a hard-line social conservative. He also thinks it is terrible that Cruz and Trump are as far along as they are and might consider voting for Hillary to prevent them from becoming President. It’s not that he likes Hillary, though.

  • #293246

    LC
    Participant
    • Topics - 640
    • Replies - 7,150
    • Total Posts - 7,790

    It’s quite likely after Wisconsin that it will go to convention. If this goes past the first ballot, some of these state delegates are only about half bound and they can nominate whoever they choose on the second, and on the third many are unbound. I question whether it would be either Trump or Cruz. Lots of speculation on who it could be–Kasich, Romney, Ryan mostly.

  • #293243

    adiffer
    Participant
    • Topics - 179
    • Replies - 9,504
    • Total Posts - 9,683

    After watching Ben Ginsburg last night, I suspect it may be much more complicated than we imagine. Some delegates may walk in on the first ballot without a legal requirement to be bound to anyone even though their state primaries suggested they should.

  • #293241

    EGL Admin
    Member
    • Topics - 3,082
    • Replies - 21,888
    • Total Posts - 24,970

    I don’t see it being Romney. They would need someone else. I kind of like Ryan, but a lot of republicans don’t like him. I haven’t followed him close enough to know his positions on all the issues.

  • #293247

    LC
    Participant
    • Topics - 640
    • Replies - 7,150
    • Total Posts - 7,790

    You know enough about him to know he doesn’t do well in elections. He’s a policy guy,and a good one. That’s it.

  • #293244

    adiffer
    Participant
    • Topics - 179
    • Replies - 9,504
    • Total Posts - 9,683

    Meh. The other guys the GOP has offered up don’t do well in elections either.
    Ryan would be a breath of fresh air.

  • #293250

    coffeebreak
    Member
    • Topics - 2
    • Replies - 28
    • Total Posts - 30

    Does anyone know if you can put a write-in-candidate on your ballot in a Presidential election?

  • #293245

    adiffer
    Participant
    • Topics - 179
    • Replies - 9,504
    • Total Posts - 9,683

    On certain races you can, but remember that we’ve turned our general election into a run-off for many offices.
    Your option to add someone else is probably most open during the primary election.

    If you have an old sample ballot, look to see if there are any blank lines.
    Here is a sample ballot from Santa Barbara. Look on page #6 and #7 to see this.

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Privacy Policy