How John Kasich Could Be Our Next President

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  • #177193

    LC
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    Up until Super Tuesday, most pols assumed Trump would be the nominee; his odds were about 79%. But Super Tuesday wasn’t all that super for the Donald. He had a few good wins, but the margins underperformed the polls in almost every case. This weekend, Louisiana was expected to be a blowout, and it was not; Cruz was on his heels, and Kentucky was a squeaker. Then, came Maine. While winning every state around previously, Trump suffered an unexpected and significant loss to Ted Cruz. Cruz? Maine? Why?

    We don’t know, but to many it was a turning point in Trump’s momentum, maybe the start of anti-Trump voting, and the pollsters starting looking closer at the numbers. NBC has surmised the following:

    49%: The number Trump has to get for the rest of the country’s delegates IF he wins BOTH Florida and Ohio on March 15
    57%: The number Trump has to get if he loses either state
    67%: The number Trump has to get if he loses both states.
    44%: Trump’s average percentage of delegates won to date

    If March 15 is a good day for him, Trump will have to outperform his current average to get the needed delegates for the nomination, and as he moves west, he becomes less popular than in the SE, NE, and the rust belt.

    If he loses just one of those states, odds are fairly strong that he will not get the needed delegates, and the nominee will be decided at convention with a delegate vote. If he loses both, it would be nearly impossible for him to become the nominee before the convention.

    Who else could run? Romney, but his speech and miserable track record probably all but eliminates him. Bloomberg is out.

    Cruz. The RNC doesn’t like Cruz any more than Trump, if as much, as he has no record of drawing from beyond a conservative base.
    Rubio. Even the campaign said he can’t continue if he loses Florida, which is much more likely than not. Rubio is damaged, possibly beyond repair, at least for this cycle.
    Kasich: Only two candidates draw from the moderate left, Trump and Kasich. Kasich is fairly well liked within the party, and has high approvals as the Ohio governor. He hasn’t done well at all during the primary, but in the few national polls that are current, he beats Clinton beyond the MOE and ties Bernie, with a .5% advantage. He’s a moderate, and for the GOP that’s not the traditional path to success. But, so is Trump, and he’s obviously done well to date. Kasich, like Trump, has some blue collar appeal, and his likability is reasonably high.

    This is a long shot, certainly not a prediction, but given the data and given that Kasich is finally being allowed to speak after being passed over in the debates, and being received well with better, even respectable numbers, I think today he has the best chance of the non Trump candidates to not only be the nominee, but to win the general election, at least against Hillary Clinton.

    You say?

  • #292895

    EGL Admin
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    I actually like what Kasich says. Of the 4, I think I like him best. Trump supporters are threatening to riot if the convention chooses someone else. Rubio is toast. I could handle having Cruz, but I don’t think he can win. If Trump was less of an ass, I think he could have won easily. Just be the anti-establishment candidate. But he is such an ego maniacal ass that it turns a lot of people off.

  • #292924

    SteveB6509
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    I also like Kasich the best. Cruz has no chance and is WAY too far out there for me (and yes, the party does not like him). Rubio is more immature than Obama was 8 years ago and he has no chance in the general election.

    Kasich has had a brilliant strategy…don’t go after anyone and let everyone else beat themselves us. If he can make it to the convention with no Trump majority, he is the only one most people would accept. Even if Trump does make it, Kasich is the perfect VP. Either way he wins.

  • #292922

    newmom
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    I like a lot about Kasich, however his strong anti-abortion stance is a real problem for me. Other than his anti abortion position, he’s pretty moderate and has done good things for Ohio.

  • #292913

    LC
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    I especially like the crossover potential. For example, Joy could support Kasich, while she might not be able to vote for Trump. I’ll bet there are a dozen or more people on here with the same preferences and limits. I can think of just one person who is probably a Cruz supporter, and the few who might prefer Trump would almost certainly be fine with Kasich. I could easily and comfortably get behind Kasich. I’d vote for Cruz or Rubio over the Dems. but wouldn’t be happy about it because I think they’d lose.

    While Trump gets full credit for energizing a disaffected GOP party and bringing up topics that needed to be addressed, he’s been a disappointment. I’d have though he’d have squared up by now and learned a little about the job. I suppose it’s not too late, but if he doesn’t pull off a two state win next Tuesday, it probably will be by then. He could still go third party at the end as a spoiler, and we can expect that threat. He would not take this lying down.

    Trump may still get the popular vote in the primary, not that it matters for the rules. Can you imagine what the convention would be like? Anyone remember Dem 1968 in Chicago?? LOL.

  • #292903

    adiffer
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    I expect a brokered convention and the winner to be someone not currently running.

    Paul Ryan.

  • #292914

    LC
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    It won’t be Ryan. $100?

  • #292911

    joy
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    I do think I could and he is definitely the only one who I can say that about at this point.

  • #292904

    adiffer
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    $100? No. Not on even odds anyway. 8)

    I can see how Cruz is trying to steer to be the winner after a few ballots, but I don’t see Trump delegates choosing to switch to him on the 2nd ballot or even the Nth ballot. For someone to get nominated after Trump and Cruz lock up a large chuck of delegates in the primaries, I think it will have to be someone willing to wave the populist’s banner without having much of a chance of winning… who isn’t Cruz. That person could appeal to the establishment enough to take what delegates Rubio and Kasich have at that point, but they have to appeal to Trump’s delegates as I don’t see Cruz’s defecting ever.

  • #292905

    adiffer
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    Heh. Watching Ryan squirm yesterday in an interview about his possible role in a contested convention was a blast.

    … and now Boehner endorses him. 8)

  • #292915

    LC
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    Don’t be so critical. These are tested candidates. Like Romney. Wait….. 😮

  • #292916

    LC
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    The pollsters are starting to sample California. In the last two, both in March but well before the 15th, John Kasich was statistically tied with Cruz behind Trump, and Trump’s lead was 5-15 points, with small samples of likely voters. Kasich could take some good CDs here, especially near the coast.

  • #292906

    adiffer
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    That would be neat.

    We might get to see if the GOP has learned the lesson of Ford from ’76. 8)

  • #292925

    SteveB6509
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    Kasich has a much better chance than Cruz of being the nominee. I still think the higher probability is Trump choosing Kasich as VP. I suspect this will occur after Trump wins a majority of the delegates in June.

  • #292907

    adiffer
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    I’m learning to see this whole mess in terms of revolutions.
    The question seems to be “Whose Party Is This?” and there are more than two sides.

  • #292917

    LC
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    I see three major factions in the GOP, while some see two.

    1. The far right social conservatives and Constitutionalists (Tea Party).
    2. The Beltway crowd, the conventionals,neo-conservatives
    3. Moderates

    Whether the party splinters and a third party is formed is anyone’s guess, as is who survives as a Republican and who becomes the new GOP if there is one. I think the first and third groups are the most likely to leave, with a far greater chance for the first group to walk away first.

  • #292896

    EGL Admin
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    I doubt any of them leave. A more reasonable third party and one that could survive would be moderates on both sides. Let the far left and far right go.

  • #292908

    adiffer
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    If the moderates move to the Dem umbrella, they’ve got the best chance of limiting the far left. There are quite a few Dems who would appreciate them too.

    I see the three way split a little different, though.

    1. Party crowd (essentially Beltway but with WIN against the Progressives as their primary principle)
    2. Confederates (the old Dixiecrat group containing both the religious right and state’s rights groups)
    3. Moderates (potential social liberals but not progressives: fiscal conservatives)

  • #292926

    SteveB6509
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    People are focussed on how Kasich cannot get to the required number of delegates. However, he does not need to do that…it’s kind of like meeting a bear in the woods with a couple of other people. You only need to run faster than the others. If Kasich ends up with roughly the same number of delegates as Trump or Cruz (which I doubt) then he is a player for the final vote at the convention.

  • #292909

    adiffer
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    I suspect he only has to run fast enough to ensure no one has the required delegates at the convention’s first ballot.
    After that, it falls to convention rules and the primaries don’t mean much.

  • #292927

    SteveB6509
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    True but I think he needs to win a couple more states to be viable. I think he can win CA and possibly OR/WA.

  • #292897

    EGL Admin
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    I don’t think Kasich wins in California. It’s Trump or Cruz it looks like right now. I think Kasich’s hope is no one gets enough delegates and then maybe he is seen as the moderate between Trump and Cruz and then that’s how he gets in. I think right now the goal is stopping Trump. Now sure if Kasich staying in helps that or not. I think he’s hurting Cruz more than he hurts Trump.

  • #292928

    SteveB6509
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    Of course he’s hurting Cruz more. However, it’s as if one person goes to another business person and says “hey, you’re hurting my business, can you go out of business?”. The idea that someone should pull out like that is absurd.

  • #292898

    EGL Admin
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    It’s different though because it’s not anywhere near like a business. Kasich isn’t making money. His funds will dry up.

  • #292929

    SteveB6509
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    I’m talking more about the rationale of asking one to drop out for the good of the party. The next primary that Cruz has a chance to win (and likely will win) is not until May 10th. Until then, there are 8 or 9 primaries with Kasich having a chance in half of them (Wisconsin, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Indiana). He’d be crazy to drop out now.

  • #292918

    LC
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    I think Kasich is a lost cause at this point. Cruz is ahead of him in Wisconsin, that’s not a good sign. Plus, it seems like he has no internal support. My money is on Cruz at this point, especially as his pull from the independents and moderate Dems is nearly the same as Trump’s now. Of course, we have a long summer and early fall ahead of us.

  • #292930

    SteveB6509
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    Cruz will get destroyed by Hillary. His positions are far off anything close to mainstream and electable for most of America. As personally annoying as Trump is, he is still the better chance to beat Hillary. Once people realize that, I think Cruz will lose some of his soft support.

  • #292899

    EGL Admin
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    I don’t think Cruz can win either. What I find interesting though is that Trump’s numbers against Clinton aren’t a whole lot better, depending on which poll you choose. I don’t get that. If Trump draws from the middle, gets independents and gets some blue collar folks, then shouldn’t he be trouncing Clinton? Or is just that his support is mainly in the primaries and won’t transfer over to the general? I don’t get that part of it.

    Do you think Kasich beats Cruz in any of the remaining states? I don’t know that he does. I think Cruz is getting support from people who see him more as a constitutionalist. His social views don’t bother me because I don’t see it changing much of anything. I don’t see it changing abortion or gay marriage. I think he would be better at foreign policy than Clinton or Trump. I think he would be tougher.

    I think Clinton will wear Trump down. She won’t play his game and get into a twitter war. She will pound it in who is more Presidential? Who has more experience? I don’t think personal attacks will work for Trump on her and I don’t think he’s capable of going after her without getting personal. I think she will beat him in debates too. She will portray him as dangerous, as a bigot, as a bully. She will play the victim card.

  • #292919

    LC
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    I find it hard to take the head to heads seriously at this point when John Kasich has won exactly one state, and of the three he is the only one beating Clinton. Trump is quite a ways away from her in the polls, Cruz does a little better. I think they start to mean something in July or so. In debates Cruz could easily take Clinton as he’s very good at debate and she is not, never has been. Trump I don’t know, but she’s got a lot more fun stuff to discuss than he.

    What’s surprised me is California is being polled now, and Trump is way ahead of the others. He has been in every poll, but I didn’t think Trump would play as well here as in the eastern part of the country.I’d think south of Butte County and west of the Sierra he’d be running back of Cruz, apparently not the case.

  • #292900

    EGL Admin
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    I have seen a lot of my FB friends switch to Trump in the past few weeks. Most were silent and now are gung ho for him. I think he plays really well for the State of Jefferson folks.

    I agree on the polls. Until we have two people, it’s hard to tell. Kind of meaningless.

  • #292920

    LC
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    @EGL Admin 125009 wrote:

    I have seen a lot of my FB friends switch to Trump in the past few weeks. Most were silent and now are gung ho for him. I think he plays really well for the State of Jefferson folks.

    I agree on the polls. Until we have two people, it’s hard to tell. Kind of meaningless.

    That’s kind of what I was thinking, State of Jefferson folks, but that’s pretty much north of Butte, isn’t it? Like most states we’re pretty much controlled by SF/LA/SD, the urban centers. I don’t see Trump there because there are not that many displaced factory worker types; that’s where he’s getting a good chunk of support. The West is different than the Rust Belt/NE of course. Maybe people are taking to him, maybe there’s more resentment in the state that’s apparent.

  • #292931

    SteveB6509
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    For CA, you need to look at each region. In the SF Bay Area, Kasich will be strong. Despite the population, there are a very small number of Republicans there (I think SF has 7,000 registered Republicans – those people will decide their 3 delegates). Central Valley and mountains will be clear Trump area. Orange County will go Cruz but their hundreds of thousands of Republicans count for the same number of delegates as the relatively few Republicans for each delegate in the SF Bay Area. I can see coastal LA going more Kasich/Cruz and Central LA going more Trump. The delegate split will be about 1/3rd each which helps Trump.

  • #292921

    LC
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    CA is done by CDs now which helps Trump. Now with the Cruz stuff going around this may help Kasich, I guess we’ll know if it’s true or likely or partially true pretty soon. Jeez…..this is HBO stuff.

  • #292901

    EGL Admin
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    I would think there has to be some truth to it. If you’re running for President, wouldn’t that be one of the things that would keep you from running? You know that is coming out at some point. If you’ve done it multiple times, then you’re a loser and in this case a huge hypocrite. It didn’t hurt Clinton because he is a democrat. If he was Republican he would have never been elected.

    It may help Kasich, but I’ll bet not enough to maybe even overtake Cruz.

  • #292923

    newmom
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    John Edwards’ presidential aspirations were ruined when news of his affair came out…and he is/was a democrat.

  • #292902

    EGL Admin
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    That’s right. Edwards was crazy. Even after the Enquirer posted a story, he still kept seeing her.

  • #292912

    joy
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    #NoneOfTheAbove

  • #292910

    adiffer
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    If there is an argument for Kasich to do the right thing for the party, it would be to pull out of primaries where the State runs a winner takes all set of rules. He should feel free to compete in all other states because it won’t be clear who he is taking a delegate from… if he wins one.

    I suspect there is going to be a convention issue with winner-takes-all states. As I understand it, the national party disapproves of such primaries. They might have grounds to throw out the results in those states and force Trump to miss his magic number.

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