The great debate, will you watch?

This topic contains 34 replies, has 0 voices, and was last updated by  Magical Mary 1 year, 4 months ago.

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  • #177869

    EGL Admin
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    Are you going to watch the Clinton/Trump debate Monday night? I think that is must see TV. Who gets under whose skin first? There’s going to be some good sound clips from it. It will be interesting if Clinton has any health issues. is she going to be able to stand that long? Will Trump call her “Crooked Hillary”. As much as I dislike Trump, I think I am leaning towards him. I think the post election loss reaction from Liberals if Trump wins is going to be phenomenal. There’s going to be a run on the ER’s all over the US with them having strokes and heart attacks. Not to mention the entertainment types as well. Plus seeing her lose, that is worth something. This has been years in the making for her. She lost to Obama 8 years ago and had to wait her turn and if she lost now. There will be crying in the streets.

  • #295163

    LC
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    Heck yes! I think all of us are curious to see if Clinton’s anticipated plan to get under Trump’s skin works. I’m betting it won’t, because I’m betting he’s prepared for it. He’s been quite “presidential” recently, and the question is will he keep that demeanor or will it be gloves off after the first 3 minutes. I’d expect more the latter, but with planned responses. I think it’s hilarious that to get in Cuban’s face he’s threatening to invite a few of Bill’s “old lady friends” to the debate to sit in the front row. He would do that too, and it might be pretty smart.

    Will the debate matter in the end? Well, with anticipated viewers numbering close to 100,000,000, if only 2% of the undecideds made a decision, that’s 2,000,000 decided potential votes. Of course it can matter, at least in a tight race.

  • #295184

    Magical Mary
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    I will watch the debate.

    I hope everybody does.

    I doubt it will change many minds (including my own) but we should at least listen to the other side, especially in a forum that can allow the candidates to address the same issues in a semi controlled environment.

    I hope they are rational and respectful of the positions each other hold. I.E. Democratic Nominee and Republican Nominee for President of the United States.

    -Mary Mowder

  • #295179

    plasmadrive
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    I say gloves on, ring the bell and go 3 rounds.. last one standing should win the debate! :yesno:

    In all honesty I don’t know may that have made up their minds. Unfortunately a lot of those people are only thinking about what is best for themselves and not the country as a whole or are a one issue voter.

    We need a political shake up.. for years we have all been saying “fire all the politicians and put a regular person in there”.. well guess what.. we have our chance. He may not be slick all around but he seems honest to me vs what I deem a very dishonest politician…. and quite frankly, I agree with the “Crooked Hillary” mantra. I would love to see them come take her away in cuffs during the debate… ha ha.. aaahhh.. no one has the stones to do that… damn!
    Oops.. gave my hand away.

    We shall see how it all goes and if it is much of a debate.. unless something stunning happens I don’t see it changing a lot of votes either way.
    .

  • #295164

    LC
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    We all base our vote on who we think is best for us, forget that “best for the country” crap, no one really does that. Or, do they, but indirectly it’s still about them. I think we’re a perfect example. Hillary is more likely than Trump to increase or protect social security, and I’ll be getting that when I decide to take it probably in a year or two. So, is she better for us? No, because I believe Trump’s tax plan would be so far superior that the tax savings would make up for a few hundred bucks a month we might lose from SS. So, we’re still going to vote for who makes us feel good, who we’re comfortable with, and who is going to give us the greatest benefit.

    I’d ask just one thing of Hillary if she’s elected. 50% of Americans don’t pay income tax. Well, I do, and at a minimum I’d like to meet the person I’d supporting. I’d like to have a chat with them. Too much to ask?

  • #295150

    EGL Admin
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    You would think at this point that most minds are made up, but the polls keep changing. I think Trump has more to gain than she does. If she stumbles, literally and figuratively, then he could gain some votes. I don’t think he will lose any votes. I still don’t think he wins because her path is easier. I haven’t looked at the state by state analysis so I don’t know how he is doing there. He’s doing better anyway.

  • #295176

    SteveB6509
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    I’m definitely watching it. I doubt Hillary will have any health issues (she’ll probably be on an IV all day if needed). I also think she will sandbag this a little and almost allow Trump to win this one. From her position, the best strategy is to lay low for this debate, keep it even for the second, and win the third. If Trump does now win this debate I think it is a loss for him.

  • #295151

    EGL Admin
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    I don’t see how him winning is a loss. He needs to do well in all 3 debates. If he was tank in this one, that would be way worse. I don’t think either can afford to have a bad debate when it’s this close and there are so many questions about them. Her biggest fear should be health issues. She better stock up on Ricola before the debate. If she has a coughing fit that won’t be good for her.

  • #295165

    LC
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    Doc, I haven’t paid attention either until just a few days ago. It was over a year ago when I felt Trump could be viable. You and most others, including the “experts” laughed at that idea and predicted his demise weekly until they were tired of being wrong. I’ve not yet to date felt great about his chances, and still don’t, but as of today after reading not polls but pollsters, and mentally playing back the last year, I am more confident than ever that it’s going to be very close and yes, he could win almost as easily as Hillary. Here’s my backward reasoning.

    There is and never has been any mainstream media source that has been behind Trump. All of them including almost all of Fox have done everything in their power to castigate his every move.

    In the secondary media, there’s not much different. Rush has been a maybe. Matt Drudge has been a pretty blatant supporter. That’s it.

    No former president is supporting him. Most of the Congress is against him. Many of the GOP leaders have spoken against him. In general the RNC is not supporting him.

    So where is he today, in face of all the negative press and pushback? Essentially tied, 2 points behind Clinton overall, well within the margin of error.

    Of the top seven swing states, neither owns any. Hillary has more advantage, but not by much, and every last one is either within the margin of error or in the case of Michigan and Pennsylvania within a point of it, and in both his numbers are slowly increasing.

    The pollsters are not honest. Case in point is Nate Silver of 538. Taking the time to dig into his “data” it’s so subjective it’s laughable. These are young New York liberals, posing as legit bookmakers, and they are when they choose to be, but they’re carrying more water for Hillary than I’ve ever seen them do for any Dem. He’ll get back to stats and real data-based predictions about 72 hours before the election as he’s judged on his outcome, nothing before. The LA Times/USC poll has always favored Trump. That’s not even a true sample; it’s a poll by committee. Means almost nothing. The Washington Post recently had a poll strongly favoring Clinton where it was discovered that the Dem sample was over 70%. This kind of disingenuous publishing isn’t sampling, it’s promotion.

    We now know that the Administration and even the FBI and of course the DNC has been covering for and protecting Hillary. When we have agencies that are in the tank for a candidate, especially the FBI, we have more problems than obnoxious red baseball caps or a nagging cough.

    Yet, Trump has survived that too.

    Let’s see what happens tomorrow night, and in the next two. All this could be erased if he screws up. And if she does, he might just get enough of a boost to turn a couple of states and take it.

  • #295154

    adiffer
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    @lc 127800 wrote:

    The pollsters are not honest. Case in point is Nate Silver of 538.

    Wishful thinking my friend. He might be mistaken, but he isn’t dishonest about this stuff.

    Quote:
    Let’s see what happens tomorrow night, and in the next two. All this could be erased if he screws up. And if she does, he might just get enough of a boost to turn a couple of states and take it.

    Maybe. He’s up against the smarter of the two Clintons. I think he is smart enough to know this has to be more of a show than a debate, but we’ll see if he can turn it that way. If it remains a debate, she will mop the floor with him.

    I’ll watch, but only from C-SPAN. I don’t want the added layer from pundits.

  • #295155

    adiffer
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    @lc 127800 wrote:

    We now know that the Administration and even the FBI and of course the DNC has been covering for and protecting Hillary. When we have agencies that are in the tank for a candidate, especially the FBI, we have more problems than obnoxious red baseball caps or a nagging cough.

    Oh… one more thing. This is quite an accusation. It’s right up there with Trump accusing election officials of rigging thing so he can’t win. This is the kind of stuff that causes people to get shot in the street. Be careful, please.

    However, I think you are going to be embarrassed you said this in a few years after Trump’s charm wears off.

  • #295166

    LC
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    No, Al, Silver is not being honest. When you weight an unknown pollster with a stale poll over a known pollster with a more recent poll, that’s pumping your book. I’m sure you missed that. Also, he’s making so many assumptions he’s removed himself from much of the data, correct or not.

    I don’t embarrass easily, you may have noticed, and that’s sometimes because I try to verify or at least have a pretty good basis before I make statements. Comey was protecting her. The hard working stiffs at the FBI never had a chance. Like you, I also will admit when I’m wrong.

  • #295171

    newmom
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    I will be watching. I don’t like either candidate, but I dislike Trump far more than I dislike Hilary, so the debate won’t do anything to change my vote. I have disliked him forever-long before he ran for office. My feelings about him are the the same as others about Hilary. But this debate will most likely be like a bad accident you can’t take your eyes off of. It could be the best thing on tv in a long time.

  • #295152

    EGL Admin
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    @newmom 127804 wrote:

    But this debate will most likely be like a bad accident you can’t take your eyes off of. It could be the best thing on tv in a long time.

    Yep. That’s why most will tune in. I think it will get a pretty big audience. People want to see one of them mess up or just see what Trump says or does.

    I agree with Al in that if it’s strictly a debate on the issues, she would kill him just because she has more knowledge of the issues. She knows foreign policy much better than he does.

  • #295153

    EGL Admin
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    Also curious to see how orange his face will be tonight. 🙂

  • #295183

    Bainc
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    No, I’ll be coaching my kids soccer practice. I’m old school with no DVR. I’ll catch some highlights or chunks online.

  • #295178

    saramarshall
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    Hek yeah!!! Can’t wait for the debate tonight!!!

  • #295180

    plasmadrive
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    @plasmadrive 127792 wrote:

    I say gloves on, ring the bell and go 3 rounds.. last one standing should win the debate! :yesno:

    In all honesty I don’t know may that have made up their minds. Unfortunately a lot of those people are only thinking about what is best for themselves and not the country as a whole or are a one issue voter.

    We need a political shake up.. for years we have all been saying “fire all the politicians and put a regular person in there”.. well guess what.. we have our chance. He may not be slick all around but he seems honest to me vs what I deem a very dishonest politician…. and quite frankly, I agree with the “Crooked Hillary” mantra. I would love to see them come take her away in cuffs during the debate… ha ha.. aaahhh.. no one has the stones to do that… damn!
    Oops.. gave my hand away.

    We shall see how it all goes and if it is much of a debate.. unless something stunning happens I don’t see it changing a lot of votes either way.
    .

    For some reason my typing fingers and my brain where not engaged.. I meant to say that In all honesty I don’t know may that have NOT made up their minds.

  • #295177

    SteveB6509
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    @EGL Admin 127799 wrote:

    I don’t see how him winning is a loss. He needs to do well in all 3 debates. If he was tank in this one, that would be way worse. I don’t think either can afford to have a bad debate when it’s this close and there are so many questions about them. Her biggest fear should be health issues. She better stock up on Ricola before the debate. If she has a coughing fit that won’t be good for her.

    I had a typo – I meant to say “If Trump does not win this debate I think it is a loss for him.” – a tie is a loss for Trump.

  • #295167

    LC
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    I”m already disappointed. I was really counting on Gennifer Flowers to be in the front row.

  • #295168

    LC
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    Nate Silver at 538 has Hillary at 54% an Trump at 46%

    The same Nate Silver also said if the election were held today Trump would win at 54%. An hour later he changed it to Trump at 51% to 49% Clinton.

    He’s Brezhnev, just ask him.

    You can track his “if the election were held today” odds here.

  • #295156

    adiffer
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    @lc 127803 wrote:

    No, Al, Silver is not being honest. When you weight an unknown pollster with a stale poll over a known pollster with a more recent poll, that’s pumping your book. I’m sure you missed that. Also, he’s making so many assumptions he’s removed himself from much of the data, correct or not. [/quote]

    Silver cares a great deal about methodology and will exclude what he thinks is crap. He is honest about that when he rates the pollsters. You might not like the rating someone gets perhaps?

    Quote:
    I don’t embarrass easily, you may have noticed, and that’s sometimes because I try to verify or at least have a pretty good basis before I make statements. Comey was protecting her. The hard working stiffs at the FBI never had a chance. Like you, I also will admit when I’m wrong.

    I’m not suggesting you’ll be embarrassed about your views regarding Clinton. I partially share them. It is Trump’s charm that I think will wear off quickly. No one on the ballot would make a good President, but Trump is (in my opinion) the worst of them. His charm fails utterly with me (no surprise) and leaves me seeing a guy who doesn’t understand our basic geopolitical imperatives. I think you will see that one day if Trump becomes President, but if he doesn’t, I won’t try to convince you of it later.

    As for the hard working stiffs at the FBI, it is important to remember that many have been trying to pin stuff to the Clinton’s for more than 20 years. If there was something that would stick, I suspect they would have found it by now. Suggesting otherwise sounds to me like conspiracy theory nuttiness. Our social institutions simply aren’t that incompetent no matter how much Hollywood portrays them to be. What they ARE is political and that is a terrible power to use against candidates in an election. Y’all can continue to persecute her after the election if you like, but for now it is better that the people choose instead of a few within the FBI choosing.

  • #295157

    adiffer
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    @lc 127817 wrote:

    Nate Silver at 538 has Hillary at 54% an Trump at 46%
    The same Nate Silver also said if the election were held today Trump would win at 54%. An hour later he changed it to Trump at 51% to 49% Clinton.
    He’s Brezhnev, just ask him.
    You can track his “if the election were held today” odds here.

    Are you quoting poll numbers or the probability of winning? There is a huge difference. The latter relies on his voting simulations.

  • #295158

    adiffer
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    @lc 127814 wrote:

    I”m already disappointed. I was really counting on Gennifer Flowers to be in the front row.

    Heh. That would have been fun. The opposition could have invited Trump’s former trophy wives.
    Maybe they should just put in a few empty seats up front with name placards on them. 8)

  • #295181

    plasmadrive
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    @newmom 127804 wrote:

    I will be watching. I don’t like either candidate, but I dislike Trump far more than I dislike Hilary, so the debate won’t do anything to change my vote. I have disliked him forever-long before he ran for office. My feelings about him are the the same as others about Hilary. But this debate will most likely be like a bad accident you can’t take your eyes off of. It could be the best thing on tv in a long time.

    Why would you like Trump less? Hillary is already a public servant, so to speak and has lied thru her teeth.. Trump is not a public servant and has just said things that he believes in, maybe not well, but more honest.

    Hillary just says what she thinks will get her elected and panders to special interest groups all day long… And they buy into it… Give me bad sound bytes over deceitfulness any day.. So Trump has a lot to learn about how he presents his thoughts, but saying uncomfortable things vs an obvious lying public figure with $$ ties to those that will send money… it is apples and oranges..

    yeah I know.. but I had too..

  • #295159

    adiffer
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    @plasmadrive 127821 wrote:

    Trump is not a public servant and has just said things that he believes in, maybe not well, but more honest.

    Pfft. He is a deceitful bastard. Pay attention to how he conducts business and you’ll see it.
    The only honest businessman in the race is Johnson.

  • #295172

    newmom
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    @adiffer 127820 wrote:

    Heh. That would have been fun. The opposition could have invited Trump’s former trophy wives.
    Maybe they should just put in a few empty seats up front with name placards on them. 8)

    His ex-wives have not come out against him, and have even rescinded some negative things they said previously (like during divorce proceedings) so I don’t think they would come and sit in support of Clinton or opposition to Trump. Plus their kids are all supporting him so, their mothers have to remember their kids in all of this

  • #295173

    newmom
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    @plasmadrive 127821 wrote:

    Why would you like Trump less? Hillary is already a public servant, so to speak and has lied thru her teeth.. Trump is not a public servant and has just said things that he believes in, maybe not well, but more honest.

    Hillary just says what she thinks will get her elected and panders to special interest groups all day long… And they buy into it… Give me bad sound bytes over deceitfulness any day.. So Trump has a lot to learn about how he presents his thoughts, but saying uncomfortable things vs an obvious lying public figure with $$ ties to those that will send money… it is apples and oranges..

    yeah I know.. but I had too..

    Trump has lied through his teeth too. His lies during debates and speeches at far greater levels than any other candidates that were ever in this race. Look at how he does business. He has been sued so many times for failing to pay for contracted services. Many construction related firms that were hired to work on projects, then Trump refused to pay at the end of the project, saying work wasn’t up to par, but then asked those same companies to bid on ANOTHER project. If you hired someone and thought the work was so bad you wouldn’t pay them, would you ask them to work for you again? No. Not me. Many, many many small businesses went under after working for him because he didn’t pay and they were forced to close after not being able to pay their own bills anymore. He’s not a good person.
    Here is one about his misuse of and lies about immigration visas-
    http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/28/news/donald-trump-foreign-workers/

    Here is ONE article about him and not paying his bills-
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/

  • #295169

    LC
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    @adiffer 127819 wrote:

    Are you quoting poll numbers or the probability of winning? There is a huge difference. The latter relies on his voting simulations.

    No, it doesn’t. It’s strictly acting as a futurist as any number of events could take place between now and the election. Hillary could leave Bill and hook up with Bernie, and Trump could be caught in the cloakroom with DWS, who knows. The polls can only give us a snapshot of today. We can predict through simulations, however that completely ignores external and unpredictable events.

    You lefties are funny, but always predictable.

  • #295160

    adiffer
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    This has nothing to do with left/right stuff. It has to do with statistical simulations regarding the known unknowns. Obviously there are unknown unknowns like the ones you listed, but one doesn’t bother trying to fold them into statistical models. The known unknowns can be treated probabilistically. Silver’s technique for doing so is sound.

    I suspect you’ve never run into the mathematics involved.

  • #295161

    adiffer
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    @newmom 127824 wrote:

    His ex-wives have not come out against him, and have even rescinded some negative things they said previously (like during divorce proceedings) so I don’t think they would come and sit in support of Clinton or opposition to Trump. Plus their kids are all supporting him so, their mothers have to remember their kids in all of this

    Heh. Doesn’t matter to me. The way Trump treats marriage commitments makes my skin crawl. Trophy wives are a warning beacon that makes me steer clear of certain guys.

  • #295174

    violarose
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    Yes, I am greatly looking forward to it.

  • #295175

    norules
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    Some guys don’t even divorce their wives before hooking up with other women. Some guys flaunt their affairs in public, even in the White House. Some women are not strong enough to leave their husbands when that happens again and again and again. Then their husband has the nerve to tell America how their wife is strong, independent, and how he admires her at the DNC. Ha ha. That was pretty funny.

  • #295170

    LC
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    Trophy wives are rarely a problem in the Democratic political circles. Michelle Obama is pretty now and has a great smile. I wouldn’t call her a trophy, and she had a lot of work done, but it was worthwhile.

    Lay off Hillary. Have you not received the memo on her exemption permit? OK, sure, she might have exaggerated a bit, maybe jeopardized national security in the process, maybe involved in dispatching some folks that got in her way, but let’s continue the focus on Trump because we have all the facts from the unbiased media. If it’s on the Internet, and if it’s anti anything GOP, it’s true. Did you forget? See #29. It’s twue! It’s twue!

  • #295182

    plasmadrive
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    @lc 127832 wrote:

    Trophy wives are rarely a problem in the Democratic political circles. Michelle Obama is pretty now and has a great smile. I wouldn’t call her a trophy, and she had a lot of work done, but it was worthwhile.

    Lay off Hillary. Have you not received the memo on her exemption permit? OK, sure, she might have exaggerated a bit, maybe jeopardized national security in the process, maybe involved in dispatching some folks that got in her way, but let’s continue the focus on Trump because we have all the facts from the unbiased media. If it’s on the Internet, and if it’s anti anything GOP, it’s true. Did you forget? See #29. It’s twue! It’s twue!

    fblike

  • #295162

    adiffer
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    @lc 127832 wrote:

    Trophy wives are rarely a problem in the Democratic political circles. Michelle Obama is pretty now and has a great smile. I wouldn’t call her a trophy, and she had a lot of work done, but it was worthwhile. [/quote]

    What makes a woman a trophy wife only has a little to do with her beauty. It has more to do with why her husband married her. Pretty Property on Display. Ugh.

    So… I did a lookup on all my past votes for President. Apparently I never voted for a guy who divorced his wife until my vote in 2012. Heh. Maybe I’m more socially conservative than I thought.

    Quote:
    Lay off Hillary. Have you not received the memo on her exemption permit? OK, sure, she might have exaggerated a bit, maybe jeopardized national security in the process, maybe involved in dispatching some folks that got in her way, but let’s continue the focus on Trump because we have all the facts from the unbiased media. If it’s on the Internet, and if it’s anti anything GOP, it’s true. Did you forget? See #29. It’s twue! It’s twue!

    Heh. Neither of them are exempt. Trump still worries me more.
    Doesn’t matter in the vote, though. I’m not voting for either one and that will make no difference in the CA outcome.

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