Trump vs Clinton

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  • #177172

    EGL Admin
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    Barring something really big happening, it looks like it will be Trump and Clinton in for President. This might be the two worst choices we have ever had. I would rather have Clinton than Sanders. I think she will move back to the middle some once she gets the nomination. Right she is trying to give away more free stuff than Sanders. I personally can’t stand her and I think she is just a liar. I can’t stand Trump either. Not so much because of his stance on the issues, but because he is such a jerk. Everything with him is a personal attack on someone. I think the election will be the ugliest one we have seen yet. Wait until he starts in on her. It’s going to be nasty. He may be the anti government/establishment candidate, but the Democrats will portray him as the anti-woman, black, Hispanic, Muslim etc candidate too and it will be hard to shake that. Do Sanders supporters choose Trump because they are anti-government too? Maybe some will, but when you look at the millennials, they aren’t going to go from Sanders to Trump. These kids want free stuff and Trump isn’t going to want to give anyone anything for free. Clinton’s numbers aren’t going to drop much more since people already know her. Trump’s will likely drop once people start to consider him and realize he’s not Presidential. He has 8 months to say more stupid things and offend more people. I think the GOP is handling the White House over to the democrats for at least another 4 years.

  • #292808

    LC
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    Spectator sport for now. Take some solace in knowing whether it’s Trump, Clinton, Rubio, or even Bernie it’s a damn site better than who we have now. It could not be any worse. Hillary does not give me too much heartburn as a potential president, just as a person. It’s interesting to see the Republican Party in a meltdown. Not many of us feel at home there any more.

  • #292798

    EGL Admin
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    I think Sanders could be worse.

  • #292818

    kindrlindr
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    Honestly? I can’t believe people are wearing such blinders and allowing Clinton to get THIS far. I am not worried about Trump’s stances on anything. I do think he’s an ass with an unfiltered mouth, but he’s smart, business minded and that’s what our nation needs right now. We’ve gone off the deep end trying NOT to offend anyone and look where that’s gotten us……….

  • #292820

    SteveB6509
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    Just remember…the more irrational Trump becomes, the more likely Bloomberg will jump in. He is a semi-Democrat so he will take many of Clinton’s votes, and he is much more pleasant than Trump so he will take a lot of Trump’s votes.

  • #292799

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    If he jumps in, who does he help the most or hurt the least? If it’s just Trump and Clinton, I think she wins. He numbers are not going to drop. I think his will as time goes on and people will choose her just because he is such an ass. If he debates her like he does the GOP, he will lose. People will see it as a sign of disrespect and I can’t imagine him changing his style. Everything with him is “the worst…..” He exaggerates everything. To me the Trump supporters are just as stupid as Clinton’s supporters. They don’t even know what he stands for. They are buying into his slogan, make America great again. I will end up voting for him over her, but I don’t think he will win. I am not sure which will be better. Him losing and seeing his reaction and his ego taking a beating. Or her winning and seeing heads explode all over the US with people being upset. I think the latter will be more fun to watch. People are going to be spitting fire.

  • #292809

    LC
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    Trump wrote that during the recession he was walking down a street in Manhattan and saw a homeless man.He thought to himself that given his current financial situation, the poor man was worth a lot more than he was at the time. That stayed with me, because Trump has been very resilient, and a fighter. It’s hard to argue his success and acumen as a business person.

    It’s also hard to be all in for him, because he really is an ass. Regardless, he’s chosen a path that has put him on top again, and that has a lot of value in my mind. He’s turned the GOP upside down, set the tone of the campaign to his agenda, and brought forth topics that were off limits previously. Way back in the fall, I was saying he could win. Lots of people on here laughed and said he had no chance. What i saw is still what I see today–someone taking a different, hands on, aggressive approach, albeit sometimes offensive, that we haven’t seen in recent history on the right side. He pulls more independents and moderate Democrats than anyone at this point. He speaks to millions of working people especially, who feel they’ve had no voice for years. We’ll see who comes out for him tonight.

    From my personal perspective, he speaks to me as a moderate. I don’t have a big problem with Planned Parenthood. I don’t care about gay marriage. I am a Christian, but I’m not an evangelical and don’t particularly enjoy hearing from them in the political arena. I fully agree that political correctness has been a destroyer of our social fabric, and has prevented needed discussions we’re now having. I’m certainly not pleased with the path of statism we’re on now.

    Whether he wins or not is anyone’s guess. Frankly I’d be a little surprised if he did, given the lack of structural support from the GOP, and even if he does win there’s still a risk as he’s a loose cannon. It’s a risk I’m willing to take at this point, given the options.

  • #292821

    SteveB6509
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    Trump will be fine. Here’s his game plan. Wrap up the nomination, then hold a mea culpa (with Oprah?). Not that I believe it would be a true mea culpa but from a business standpoint (where winning the Presidency is the Deal), it is the brilliant thing to do. If he does that and then spends a few weeks biting his lips, everyone will forget that he is an ass (or rather, the only ones who will remember that are the ones who never would have voted for him anyway).

  • #292810

    LC
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    I have no idea what his game plan is, and I doubt he does either. Notice that Trump will repeat phrases continuously for a short period. If they resonate, he doesn’t stop. Test–how many billions of trade deficit do we have with Mexico? You know the answer because he’s given the figure so many times. Other phrases, like the Mexican rapists and drug dealers have fallen off–those didn’t work as well. I believe he has more analytical feedback on his delivery than any other candidate, and he moves forward with what works first, then what might work next, and continually adjusts. He knows Hillary is an open book for destruction, and has barely started. He’ll look at exit polls for the upcoming states and speak to those who came out, and those who he might attract. He’s very smart, but his Queens accent and non-erudite delivery is what works for his base. I would not expect that to change. Good negotiators know how to pivot quickly, and usually start with an end goal and work backwards. I think that’s exactly what he is doing, rather than using the same tired lines as Marco and the others.

    Back in the 80s I taught classes in negotiation at Learning Exchange. I used two primary sources, Robert Ringer and Donald Trump. I studied both carefully, and Trump has not changed. It’s fascinating to watch him in a masterful game of chess.

  • #292822

    SteveB6509
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    He is brilliant. Also, he is going to trounce the NY Times for releasing what were supposed to be off the record comments. It’s another sign of powerful forces working against him (which, of course, feeds to reinforce many of his supporters).

  • #292816

    newmom
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    I think he is as big a liar and a fraud as every other candidate.

  • #292824

    CJay916
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    The worst part about this election is my Facebook Feed. I have a few friends that are a lot dumber than I remember.

  • #292800

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    @steveb6509 124578 wrote:

    Trump will be fine. Here’s his game plan. Wrap up the nomination, then hold a mea culpa (with Oprah?). Not that I believe it would be a true mea culpa but from a business standpoint (where winning the Presidency is the Deal), it is the brilliant thing to do. If he does that and then spends a few weeks biting his lips, everyone will forget that he is an ass (or rather, the only ones who will remember that are the ones who never would have voted for him anyway).

    I don’t see him doing any mea culpas. He’s going to be attacking Clinton, so he won’t change his style before November.

    I don’t know as far as election speak what a close race or rout is. I don’t think he wins. Compared to 2012, what states will he win that Romney lost and can he make up the ground? The CNN poll says he loses to Clinton and Sanders. My gut feeling is that it won’t really be that close of an election and Clinton wins. Maybe the same or more so than Obama did in 2012. The wildcard is Clinton and if anything can be dug up on her and if so, will it stick? I think the Democrats are going to be lining people up from Trump’s past to come forward and talk about it. He’s going to be playing defense and putting out fires. Does he have the infrastructure to win in pivotal states?

  • #292811

    LC
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    And I would imagine that if that’s the case, Trump will buy an hour of prime time programming interviewing every woman Bill Clinton has been with and has any indirect or direct contact with Hillary. As stated earlier, it’s a spectator sport this time around.

    The most recent CNN poll also says Cruz wins over Clinton by a hair. Until the last couple of weeks, several of the national polls had Carson beating Clinton nicely. I’d suggest neither will happen.

  • #292812

    LC
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    If you read the headlines, Trump had a spectacular night. I guess it depends on how you define spectacular; is it states won, delegates booked, or performance to expectations? Trump did get 7 states, Cruz 3, and Marco finally nailed one. In that regard he did well. He had very little chance in Texas, none in Minnesota, and only Oklahoma and Alaska were competitive–he lost both. Massachusetts was a good win, as was Virginia but that was very close. His delegate count was far from spectacular, and in several states he performed below the polls. A good night, not a great night for him. Cruz did very well with the three states he won. If Rubio loses Florida it’s hard to see a path for him to continue.

    Bernie Sanders had a pretty good night too, although Clinton did very well. Once the race moves west, both Trump and Clinton have bigger challenges. Trump has never done as well in the West as in the South and Northeast, and Bernie has a good chance of taking Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, mostly white states where he does well. Not a lot of delegates but more wins. Clinton should take California easily, not sure about the GOP candidate, but if the same group is still around Trump is not favored. A Cruz win in CA would not be a surprise given today’s landscape and assuming Rubio continues to falter. If Trump gets Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and New York-New Jersey he’s in pretty good shape. If he misses a couple, could go to convention.

  • #292801

    EGL Admin
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    Christie sure looked uncomfortable standing behind Trump. There were all kinds of memes on Twitter about it. It won’t happen but if Rubio or Cruz dropped out, the other would probably beat Trump. I think Rubio will drop out first. It he joins Cruz then they could beat Trump. A Cruz-Rubio ticket wouldn’t be too bad. Not my first choice but I think better than Trump.

  • #292813

    LC
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    He looked very uncomfortable, I don’t know what was going on.

    538 really drilled down on the exit polls. Cruz, no surprise, gets the far right, and a good share of the evangelicals. Rubio only did well in the urban areas, white collar, educated, conventional Republicans. Trump’s reach was much wider. His best base was lower middle income whites, either rural or living in racially mixed urban, suburban areas, blue collar. He also got a good share of disaffected Democrats, and non-registered from all economic spectrums. Interestingly, Trump is more likely to get un-registered voters, especially moderates, than registered Republicans. I think this is reflective of the shift we’ve seen in the party to more of a blue collar base over the past few years.

  • #292819

    kindrlindr
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    What worries me a lot, is that even my senior citizen buddies at the gym(who are ANTI O as much as I am) hate Trump..if he ends up running against Hillary, I sure hope they hate her more.

  • #292817

    violarose
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    My family loves to talk politics. I wrote on the calendar that Hillary will be president. Not that I am voting for her, I just think it is going to be. If I am wrong , we can all celebrate.

  • #292802

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    @kindrlindr 124622 wrote:

    What worries me a lot, is that even my senior citizen buddies at the gym(who are ANTI O as much as I am) hate Trump..if he ends up running against Hillary, I sure hope they hate her more.

    I think that is a concern. Clinton’s numbers as far as people hating her will not change. I think Trump’s will get worse. I think Trump is a disaster. We will see what happens these next 7 months.

  • #292803

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    I listened to part of the debate and watched part of it. I haven’t seen all of it yet. The back and forth between Rubio and Trump is ridiculous and Trump once again shows what an ass he is. Cruz did well I thought. I thought Kasich sounded the best of all of them. I think he would make a good VP pick.

    Romney’s statement yesterday just sounded like sour grapes and he’s the wrong person to be trying to get that message across. It should have been said months ago by someone else. Romney has no standing in the GOP. He needs to just go away.

  • #292814

    LC
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    I taped it and watched about 45 minutes total. It was good if you enjoy high school cafeteria food fights, it was disgusting. Other than his completely inappropriate phallic moment, Trump generally stayed above the fray, by an inch anyway. Cruz did fine, probably the winner if one could actually think anyone won this one. John Kasich was Kasich. He just can’t nail down a following, although it’s hard to argue that he’d probably make a decent president. The big loser was poor Marco Rubio. He’s a bright young man, but came off like a rabid chihuahua. He’s been forced into this new ankle biting, and it’s going to hurt him in this campaign, probably in his next one too. He did get in a couple of good impromptu zingers though!

    We should all be worried. Hillary’s not a good person and wouldn’t be a good president for most of us, but regardless of who the GOP candidate is, even if we had a good one, it’s just hard for a Republican to win nationally with the left urban cores. I think Trump’s going to be the guy on the right, and while he’ll probably have a good couple of weeks, certainly winning some key states like Michigan and probably Florida, he’s going to be pushing the boulder uphill as he moves west. He’s starting to straighten up, starting to revise some of his eccentric positions, and he appeals to a wide group. Question is, can he continue to broaden the support, or does he hit a wall.

    Sidebar: NH GOP Senator Kelly Ayottte, one of the GOP favorites, is ahead of Democrat challenger Maggie Hassan, the governor of NH, by only 4 points. That is not much of a lead, and a senator the GOP cannot afford to lose. If the GOP loses the Senate and Hillary is President, we’re S-C-R-E-W-E-D.

  • #292804

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    That’s another issue with Trump is that his anti -establishment support doesn’t help republicans much. If there was a strong republican on the ticket, then they could pulls some of the candidates along, but I don’t think he’s going to do that.

  • #292806

    adiffer
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    Americans Are Finally Returning To The Workforce

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/march-jobs-report/

    GOP is screwed if this holds. It’s not the malleable unemployment rate. This is the job market participation rate. Much more important because it speaks to our confidence.

  • #292815

    LC
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    The gross numbers in the job report are good, but your statement that the GOP is screwed is fallacious. Well, not, they probably ARE screwed 😉 but not because of this. Let’s break this down, with a chart from your (often clearly left biased, but one of my favorites too) 538 site:

    [IMG]http://www.elkgrove-laguna.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=2228&stc=1[/IMG]

    First, construction jobs are important because it indicates allocation of capital and expanding requirements, however, the gain was wiped out by the loss of mining and logging jobs. That’s a direct result of increased restrictions and regulatory intrusion.

    Next. look at manufacturing jobs. DOWN 19K
    Transportation and warehousing DOWN 5K, and you well know, Al, that this sector is a strong bellweather of the economy.

    What’s working? Retail. Restaurant. Nearly all minimum wage.
    And government jobs. Great.
    Healthcare, probably mostly good, we don’t know the level. Tons of low paying jobs here too, but let’s assume it’s a net positive.

    Also, the jobs reports are old news. This is the February report, but the hires were actuated previously, often before we realized we were clearly edging towards a recession.

    Here is what is going to/could screw the GOP: 1) a growing positive rating on Obama, 2) loss of GOP down ballot office holders, which really goes back to a just abysmal performance in the Senate and House, and 3) I believe Donald Trump or Ted Cruz could be a net negative for the down ballot votes.

    I remain a Trump supporter, but not a strong or proud supporter, and I’m not in concrete with him. I simply believe he’s more right than the others on the solutions, and wrong on many, like for example, a 45% tariff on imports? Ridiculous, and I hope he knows that. Here’s my FB post on this topic, see what you think.

    Obama’s America: 80% of the “great jobs report” are minimum wage jobs. Average hourly earning down, average weekly hours down. 19,000 mining jobs lost, largely because of more regulations. And Hillary wants to continue this national labor destruction? Bernie and his union boys attending union rallys would put the nail in the coffin. We need to slowly bring manufacturing jobs back to America, but have to provide the best platform in the world for industry. I think we do that by offering tax incentives, dropping needless regulation, and as consumers swallowing some price increases until our wages catch up with them.

  • #292823

    SteveB6509
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    I listened to 90% on radio but missed the phallic comment (saw it on replay). I don’t think it was inappropriate – Rubio brought it up first and Trump called him out on it.

    Trump sounded fairly mature and only seemed to go after Rubio when Rubio went after him. Given his lead, I think he did what he needed to do. I think the Cruz supporters have to get out of their head that he can beat Hillary. His positions are not mainstream and he is a hardliner. The Dems would love to go against him or Rubio.

    Rubio is starting to sound so bad that I think this kills a future bid for him. He is just a rabid ugly dog.

    Kasich would be a good President and he is hanging around for the VP position. He also will pick up more votes when Rubio drops out (which will be March 16th).

  • #292805

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    Did Rubio bring it up that night or in the campaign? Sounded more like Trump brought it up. Rubio is done. They waited too long to attack Trump. Rubio doesn’t have a good voting record in the Senate, he misses too many votes. Cruz is probably gaining some steam as the GOP sees him as the only way to stop Trump. Cruz is putting himself out there as a strict constitutionalist and that will gain him some votes. I don’t think he can win in November because he is too far right. Best case scenario for him is that something comes out with Clinton, maybe she gets indicted, and then he can win that way. Barring that happening, I don’t think he can beat her, but you never know. I think he can handle her in a debate pretty well though. No one has accused Cruz of being a racist yet, so he’s ahead of Trump on that one. Something happening with Clinton might be the only way that Trump wins too

  • #292807

    adiffer
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    @lc: I’ll still argue for the GOP being screwed. It’s a bit like what happened in ’08, but in reverse. A growing economy raises confidence levels and that favors the party in power. With the way things are going, the GOP circus needs this to turn sour after the primary season is over. Without that, the Dems are going to replay material being produced for them by the primary combatants and keep this joyous season going as long as they can.

    As for 538’s bias, I’m not doubting you. They make it plain, though, and they have this interesting ability to get their predictions right more often than not. It was fun watching Silver and friends during the lead up to the 2112 election.

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